On 1 November we reported on the opening of Goonswarm's lowsec deployment: a Fortizar going up in Siseide, an embargo on Goon pilots across the Hydra Freeport network, and a first battle report that looked like a siege just getting started. We said we would come back when the first big timers hit. They have.
Between 2 and 3 November, Amamake turned into one of the largest fights of the month. Here is what the numbers say, what r/Eve is arguing about, and what is still unconfirmed.
The fight in numbers
We rebuilt the fight on capsuleers.app for Amamake, from 12:00 UTC on 2 November to 14:00 UTC on 3 November: open the battle report.
1,233 killmails, about 592 billion ISK destroyed, 2,653 pilots involved.
Goonswarm Federation and allies (Goonswarm Federation, Brave Collective, Sigma Grindset, SONS of BANE): 1,814 pilots, 821 kills, 378 losses, about 312 billion ISK destroyed and 189 billion lost.
Fraternity, The Initiative, Snuffed Out and Northern Coalition.: 839 pilots, 521 kills, 273 losses, about 280 billion ISK destroyed and 51 billion lost.
A word of caution on those figures. We grouped only the alliances we could identify by name, and other groups on grid are not assigned to either side, so the two columns do not add up to a clean "who won". The total and the pilot counts are the reliable part: this was a 2,600-pilot fight in a lowsec system.
What the community says happened
The best-read eyewitness comment came under a post titled "Amamake brawl cinematic" (thread). A user there says the Goons killed roughly twice the ships they lost, that around 30 carriers were lost, and that the objective was secured, while the main opposition fleets were Fraternity and The Initiative. Another commenter in the same thread adds that the defence used cheap battleships fitted for artillery range to hold the carriers back, and that the battle report ended up within a few billion ISK either side. These are comments, not verified facts, but they match the shape of our numbers: a long, expensive fight with no clear knockout.
A separate post from Bluemelon, the Hydra Freeport spokesperson we quoted last time, claims the first Goon assault was beaten back and that no Freeport structure has fallen so far, with one exception he mentions only in passing (thread). He also says Goonswarm, Brave, Sons of Bane, VAPOR, SIGMA, DC, TNT and Fanatic Legion have lost docking rights at every Hydra Freeport structure, and that taxes and clone costs stay at zero while the war lasts. That is propaganda from one side of the conflict, so read it as the Freeport's own account, not as an independent report.
Goons using carriers as their main doctrine, rather than the usual subcapital fleets, also came up in several comments under a popular propaganda image (thread). A Goon pilot in that thread says carriers cost about the same as a Paladin fleet.
Is this "Goons vs lowsec"?
That is the argument filling the comment sections. The same thread above includes a user who says 1,700 of 2,200 pilots on grid were Fraternity or Initiative, and asks whether that is really lowsec defending itself. Another replies that, optics aside, the lowsec residents are turning up too, and that someone passing through the system saw about 950 pilots in local. A third calls it a classic proxy war.
Both readings are partly right. Our own battle report shows The Initiative with the biggest pilot count on the defending side, then Fraternity, with Snuffed Out and Northern Coalition. behind them. Lowsec groups are present, but they are not the majority of that side.
The "Lowsec Voltron" and its infighting
Around the fighting, a coalition of lowsec groups has been taking shape under the name "LowSec Voltron". What r/Eve shows is mostly satire, so treat the following as the mood, not the facts:
A satirical "bloodless coup" post claimed Sedition's executor had been replaced and that SEDIT and BIGAB would join the anti-Goon coalition (thread). It is a joke post and is flagged as a meme; Bluemelon's earlier post, in contrast, said SEDIT and BIGAB had decided not to fight in their old homes.
A follow-up joke from the same author says Voltron members ended up shooting SEDIT structures while Goons were attacking them too (thread). Take it as satire about the coalition's fragility.
Norv Gate Security Commission announced, in a tongue-in-cheek post, that it would support Amamake and join Voltron (thread). Our battle report does list Northern Coalition. among the defenders, which is a different group; we are not claiming NSGC's involvement beyond the post itself.
The broader picture, which we can confirm from several posts, is that a lot of different groups are flying against Goonswarm, and that lowsec politics inside that group are messy.
A second front
On 3 November a post shared a screenshot of a newspaper-style front page claiming Goons were chased out of Gukarla by Voltron forces, with The Initiative backing the local defenders (thread). Another clip title mentions a "Server vs Goons in low secs (Gukarla)" (thread). We have not verified a battle in Gukarla and do not have a report for it, so we will wait for a clearer source before writing about it as a separate front.
What to watch
Daily timers at the Freeport's structures. The defenders say they expect Goons back with bigger numbers.
Whether the embargo holds. As of the latest posts, Goon pilots remain locked out of Hydra Freeport structures.
A possible rule discussion. A commenter on the Goons' announcement post hoped the siege would push Fenris Creations to revisit structure siege mechanics. That is a wish from one user, not an announcement.
A note outside the war
Last week the community's most-followed topic was not a war at all. On 29 October a thread about the death of actor Patrick Stewart stayed at the top of r/Eve for 40 hours (thread), and a petition asking Fenris Creations to memorialise him in New Eden gathered a long discussion (thread). A pilot also called for a cyno vigil (thread). We have found no official response so far.
Sources
Previous coverage: Goonswarm Deploys to Amamake: Hydra Freeport Under Siege in Lowsec
Battle report: Amamake, 2 to 3 November
r/Eve: Amamake brawl cinematic, The Hornburg Holds, "Bee careful what you wish for" (image: https://i.redd.it/2760i9aneizh1.png), NSGC joins Voltron (image: https://i.redd.it/j6l4bl07ejzh1.jpeg), Sedition coup (satire), BIGAC victory (satire), Goons chased from Gukarla (unverified), Patrick Stewart thread
Images used in the article: "Bee careful what you wish for" and the NSGC post image, linked above.
